NM
Nord MetricsDigital analytics report
Key takeaway
The promotion gave a multiple of uplift, but part of the sales could be a cannibalization of future demand.
Synthetic scenario report: the promo fact is compared with the base trajectory without external stimulus by category and SKU-group.
Uplift
+3 220
additional units to the base
Revenue
RUB18.9 million
after discount and refunds
Proportion of SKU
16,4%
in the category for the period
Promo share
72%
orders came through the mechanics of the promotion
Fact vs. baseline scenario
baseline vs promo
1,060 pcs.forecast without promotion: seasonality + trend before promo
4,280 pcs.promo fact: strong spike requiring margin check
uplift Drivers
Interpretation Risks
01
Cannibalization.
Some customers could have bought earlier than planned.
Some customers could have bought earlier than planned.
02
Margin.
The growth of pieces is not equal to the growth of profit after the discount.
The growth of pieces is not equal to the growth of profit after the discount.
03
Repeat.
We need to check if customers return after the promo without a new discount.
We need to check if customers return after the promo without a new discount.
Channel section
channel contribution
| Channel | Actual | Baseline | Uplift | Revenue | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRM | 1 320 | 410 | +910 | RUB5.7 million | the cheapest deposit, but you need to control the frequency of mailings |
| Performance | 1 110 | 280 | +830 | RUB4.8M | strong growth, CAC to be considered after returns |
| Organic | 760 | 230 | +530 | RUB3.2 million | part of uplift came from pre-existing demand |
| Partner | 690 | 90 | +600 | RUB3.1 million | a good spike, but a higher share of discount orders |
| Offline | 400 | 50 | +350 | RUB2.1 million | small volume, but high average check |
Conclusion for owner
The promotion has proven the elasticity of demand, but the next launch cannot be evaluated by pieces only. The main KPIs are gross margin, repeat purchase without discount and the share of orders that did not eat up future demand.
Next test
A
Launch a holdout group without a promo to more accurately separate the organics.
B
Make two offers: a discount on entry and a bonus on replay.
C
Count the result after 30 and 60 days, not just on the day the promotion ends.